"We Only Have to Be Lucky Once": Political Opportunity and Strategic Oscillation in South Africa and Northern Ireland
Publisher
The University of Arizona.Rights
Copyright © is held by the author. Digital access to this material is made possible by the University Libraries, University of Arizona. Further transmission, reproduction, presentation (such as public display or performance) of protected items is prohibited except with permission of the author.Abstract
Resistance movements rarely follow a linear path: they adapt as political environments open or close, and as internal debates and resource pressures shape what strategies remain viable. However, much of the literature reduces violent and nonviolent resistance to a fixed binary, obscuring how campaigns shift between them in response to changing political opportunities. This thesis asks: how do movements engaged in both violent and nonviolent resistance negotiate between these strategies, and what roles do political opportunity, leadership dynamics, cost-benefit analysis, and resource constraints play in those decisions? I develop the concepts of strategic oscillation — the deliberate return to earlier violent or nonviolent tactics — and tactical hybridity, the simultaneous pursuit of multiple approaches. Using qualitative case studies of the anti-apartheid movement in South Africa and the Irish republican movement in Northern Ireland, I trace how both campaigns began as nonviolent struggles, adopted armed tactics when major state repression narrowed political openings, and ultimately returned to nonviolence when new opportunities emerged. South Africa leveraged international legitimacy and sanctions to expand nonviolent pressure, while Irish republicans drew on diaspora support and internal factional contestation to sustain violence longer before shifting toward electoral politics and negotiations. The analysis finds that movements do not simply react to repression or marginalization; they interpret and exploit shifting political opportunities, weighing legitimacy, resources, and leadership priorities in deciding when to escalate or de-escalate. Understanding these oscillations reframes resistance as an adaptive process driven by how movements navigate the openings and constraints of their political environment over time.Type
textElectronic Thesis
Degree Name
M.A.Degree Level
mastersDegree Program
Graduate CollegeGovernment and Public Policy