The Thucydides Trap on the Moon: How to Maintain Peace on the Eighth Continent? [Article]

Abstract

Can public international law prevent the Moon from becoming a Thucydides trap amid the ambitious Sino–American projects in space exploration at present, the growing risks of the weaponization and militarization of space, and the commercial craze for material extraction from the South Pole of the Moon? This article presents an original analysis of the politico-legal factors that could lead to armed conflict between China and the United States to dominate the Moon, along with legal solutions. The United States’ competition with China is no longer a choice but now seems inevitable. The American government rejected the possibility of cooperating with China in the sensitive space sector. This places the United States in a similar situation in form to the one it faced in the 1960s with the objective of winning the space race, but similar in substance to the Seven Years’ War. If the Cold War is understood as an ideological conflict in which two economic models clashed with the Moon as an element that divided them, this new rivalry seems to have had more of the features of the intercolonial wars in America that placed France against England in the 17th century. Recent interpretations of the Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967 have led to the legalization of the appropriation of space resources. Space could become a Wild West involving states with the necessary technical capacities rushing to exploit space resources. What are the legal and geopolitical implications for different states targeting one lunar territory? How can we legally and practically prevent and resolve a possible conflict on the Moon between the United States, China, and their allies? To escape the Thucydides trap, international law must encourage a spirit of cooperation and, above all, rethink its structures and the legal regimes of governance in terms of the Moon’s exploitation. The United States and China have too much to lose in a confrontation for it to be worthwhile for either, and even if a Sino–American war were likely, this article takes the position that it can be avoided.